Polymarket Exceeds $100 Million in Monthly Trading Volume Amid Rising Speculation for US Election Outcome
Ruholamin Haqshanas
Updated on:
July 1, 2024, 01:48 EDT
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2-minute read
Polymarket, a decentralized platform for predictions, achieved a trading volume surpassing $100 million in June, fueled by the growing anticipation surrounding the United States presidential election.
The market specifically for the “Presidential Election Winner 2024” currently hosts a remarkable $203.3 million in bets spread across 17 distinct prediction markets.
Currently, the frontrunner in the election race is former President Donald Trump, with a 62% probability of winning, accompanied by a total of $24.7 million in wagers both for and against his victory. In close pursuit is the incumbent President, Joe Biden, with $23.9 million in bets placed on his potential reelection.
Biden’s chances have dwindled from 34% to 21% subsequent to his uninspiring performance in the recent Presidential Debate on June 28.
Emergence of New Election-Related Predictions
Notably, following the debate, there has been a surge in bets on markets forecasting events like “Biden drops out of presidential race” and “Biden drops out by July 4,” boasting odds of 43% and 9%, respectively, with a combined total of over $10 million placed in these markets.
Furthermore, there are substantial sums wagered on the prospects of individuals like American rapper Kanye West and crypto skeptic Elizabeth Warren winning the presidency, although the likelihood of success in these markets currently stands at less than 1%.
Operating on the Ethereum sidechain Polygon, Polymarket enjoyed a remarkable trading volume of $109.9 million in June, marking the first instance of it crossing the $100 million threshold, as per data from a Dune Analytics dashboard.
This surge represents a significant uptick from the trading volumes observed between January and May, which ranged from $38.9 million to $63 million, showcasing a remarkable 620% growth when compared to the preceding five months (August-December 2023).
Moreover, the count of monthly active traders experienced a staggering 115% surge, reaching 29,266 in June.
Polymarket also witnessed an increase in the total value locked, climbing to $40.2 million, a near 69% escalation over the past 30 days, as outlined by Token Terminal data.
Increased Trading Activities in UEFA Bets on Polymarket
The platform observed substantial trading volumes not only in cryptocurrency markets but also in regards to the UEFA European Football Championship 2024.
Established in June 2020, Polymarket recently secured $70 million in funding and enjoys the backing of Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin and venture capital firm Founders Fund.
“Prediction markets represent the purest technological manifestation of democratic principles,” remarked Yuga Cohler, an engineering lead at cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase, in a recent X post. “They leverage free markets and free speech to derive truth. In an era where centralized control of information poses a systemic threat, prediction markets provide a means to cut through misinformation and discern the unadulterated truth.”
A survey conducted by the Harris Poll unveiled that one in three US voters prioritize a candidate’s stance on cryptocurrencies when deciding their vote. Additionally, a survey by prominent crypto venture capital firm Paradigm indicates substantial crypto community support for Trump’s 2024 presidential bid, with 48% of crypto owners planning to vote for the former president, while 39% favor current U.S. President Joe Biden.
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