Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC Surges to $61.5K on Rate Cut Speculation and Trump Debate Victory
Bitcoin (BTC) recently broke its losing streak, rallying to around $61,500 and peaking at $62,150 in a notable bullish move, suggesting an optimistic Bitcoin price forecast.
This uptrend is attributed to weaker US macroeconomic figures, fueling speculation about potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later this year. Consequently, there was a surge in BTC prices driven by short-covering among investors.
Additionally, BTC gained momentum following Donald Trump’s increased lead over Joe Biden in betting markets after the presidential debate on June 27, boosting investor confidence further.
However, the gains in BTC might be short-lived as Bitcoin ETF outflows reached $1.3 billion, indicating reduced investor interest and possible downward pressure on prices.
US Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Signals Impacting Bitcoin
In the US, softer macroeconomic data released recently heightened expectations of the Federal Reserve adopting interest rate cuts this year. This anticipation spurred a rally in Bitcoin prices as investors reacted to potential changes in monetary policy.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar received support from statements made by Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, who suggested that the Fed is not currently considering a rate cut due to ongoing inflation risks.
These mixed signals from the Fed and economic indicators are influencing market sentiment, with Bitcoin experiencing upward pressure amid rate cut expectations, while the Dollar finds stability amidst inflation concerns.
Key Economic Data Highlights
– GDP Growth: First-quarter real GDP growth was revised up to a 1.4% annualized rate, marking the slowest pace since spring 2022.
– Durable Goods Orders: May recorded a slight 0.1% increase, contrary to expectations of a 0.1% decline, following a revised growth of 0.6% in April.
– Jobless Claims: Initial Jobless Claims fell to 233,000 in late June, though the four-week average increased to 236,000, the highest since last September.
– Pending Home Sales: Dropped by 2.1% in May, hitting the lowest level since 2001, indicating challenges in the housing market.
These economic indicators highlight ongoing uncertainties impacting market sentiment. Weaker US economic data has heightened expectations of Fed rate cuts, bolstering Bitcoin prices as investors anticipate favorable changes in cryptocurrency-friendly monetary policies.
Bitcoin Price Rise During Presidential Debate Favoring Trump
Bitcoin’s price rose by 1.1% during CNN’s first presidential debate on June 27 as betting markets favored Donald Trump over President Joe Biden. Bitcoin started trading at $61,439 before the debate, peaked at $62,152 during the event, and settled at $61,362 afterward.
PredictIt data indicated a surge in Trump’s chances of winning the presidency, accompanied by a significant decline in Biden’s odds. Observers noted Biden’s challenges in articulating responses, influencing market sentiment accordingly.
Key Points
Pre-Debate Price: $61,439
Peak During Debate: $62,152
Post-Debate Price: $61,362
Data from PredictIt showed Trump’s odds increasing from $0.53 to $0.63, while Biden’s dropped sharply from $0.48 to $0.37 during the same period.
Bitcoin Price Forecast
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is currently trading at $61,530, showing a slight decline of 0.20%. On the 4-hour chart, the pivot point is set at $61,200. Immediate resistance levels are at $62,510, followed by $63,440 and $64,510.
On the downside, immediate support is found at $60,160, with further support at $59,190 and $58,430. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is neutral at 50, while the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at a critical resistance level of $61,780.
Key Points
– Bitcoin trades at $61,530, down 0.20%, with RSI at 50.
– Immediate resistance at $62,510 and support at $60,160.
– An ascending triangle pattern suggests bullish momentum above $61,200.
Bitcoin’s outlook remains bullish above the $61,200 level, supported by an ascending triangle pattern and upward trendline near $62,500.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s recent rally to $61,500 was driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and favorable betting odds for Donald Trump following the presidential debate. While uncertainties persist in the market, Bitcoin’s technical indicators suggest potential for further bullish movement, contingent on key support and resistance levels.
