Bitcoin’s future potential for parabolic growth in this cycle and beyond is explored in CCData’s July 2 H2 Outlook Report. Despite experiencing a downward correction after reaching an all-time high of $73,737 in March, Bitcoin’s current price sits at $60,463, representing a 97% increase over the past year. The report notes that Bitcoin’s price action has been range-bound between $72,000 and $59,000 since the fourth halving on April 19, leading some to speculate that the market may have already reached its peak this cycle. However, CCData’s analysis of past halving cycles suggests that Bitcoin’s price typically expands for a period of time after a halving event, with each cycle lasting longer than the previous one due to the increasing maturity of the asset class and reduced volatility. The researchers also observed a drop in trading activity on centralized exchanges for a couple of months following previous halving events, indicating that the current cycle could extend into 2025. Furthermore, two out of three previous cycles saw Bitcoin’s price increase by over 50% within 180 days after the halving, suggesting that more sideways price action is likely in the third quarter before a potential breach of previous all-time highs by the end of the year. The report also highlights the growing institutionalization and maturation of the industry in the first half of 2024, with the launch of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US accumulating over $55 billion in net assets as of June. This influx of institutional capital is expected to attract retail investors, who were previously hesitant due to market downturns and collapses of major companies. The report concludes that while the influence of institutional participants has altered previous trends, the current cycle has yet to see the parabolic expansion that occurred in past cycles before reaching their peak.
