### Is a Bull Market on the Horizon? Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Surge Within “15-20 Days”
**Bitcoin**
**Bull Market**
**Fed Rate Cut**
While some view the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates as a positive signal for Bitcoin, others warn of a potential recession looming ahead.
**Last updated:** September 19, 2024, 14:02 EDT
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As Bitcoin gains momentum following the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut, one analyst speculates that a bull market may be just around the corner.
In a post on X dated September 19, well-known analyst Crypto Rover pointed to historical trends observed after Bitcoin halvings, suggesting that “a Bitcoin bull market should be starting in 15-20 days” as we near the conclusion of an accumulation phase.
*Bitcoin’s bull market across previous cycles. Source: CryptoRover / X.*
This perspective aligns with earlier remarks from CryptoQuant’s CEO, Ki Young Ju, who highlighted that previous post-halving surges typically commence in the fourth quarter of the halving year. Young Ju also noted that “whales won’t let Q4 be boring with a flat YoY performance,” indicating that significant market movements are anticipated as the year draws to a close.
These combined technical insights and historical patterns have sparked speculation that the fourth quarter of 2024 could be a crucial time for Bitcoin, with a six-figure Bitcoin still within reach as we head into 2025.
### Major Catalyst: The US Election
This outlook coincides with what is poised to be a major catalyst: the **US presidential election**. Analysts predict that it could trigger new all-time highs, driven by “positive factors that will prevail regardless of the election’s outcome.”
The winning candidate is likely to shift away from the heavily criticized regulatory stance of the Biden administration, fostering a more favorable environment for cryptocurrencies. Former President Donald Trump has expressed a desire to establish the US as the global “crypto capital,” while Vice President Kamala Harris has taken a more cautious approach, though there are indications she may adopt a more balanced regulatory strategy.
Stuart Alderoty, Chief Legal Officer at Ripple, underscored the necessity for a new regulatory framework for cryptocurrency in the US. “The rest of the world has moved on; they’ve recognized the value of the technology, the jobs, the tax revenues, and the innovation it can bring to the economy,” he asserted.
### A Cautionary Note: Rate Cut Raises Recession Concerns
Despite this optimism, some analysts remain skeptical, pointing to the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to slash interest rates by 50 basis points as a potential harbinger of an impending recession. This move has been characterized as a “crisis” measure intended to address a faltering job market.
Historically, significant rate cuts have often preceded economic downturns. The last two instances of cuts exceeding 50 basis points—on January 3, 2001, and September 18, 2007—were followed by recessions, during which the S&P 500 experienced declines of 39% and 54%, respectively.
In light of this history, some analysts caution that the current rate cut might indicate deeper economic vulnerabilities rather than merely serving as a catalyst for a bull market. While the rate cut could initially provide a boost for Bitcoin and other prominent cryptocurrencies, concerns about a broader economic slowdown may temper long-term enthusiasm.
10x Research has warned that a 50 basis point cut could “signal deeper concerns to the markets,” suggesting it reflects more profound issues rather than simply addressing current economic conditions. This situation could result in reduced investor appetite for risk assets like Bitcoin.
Some analysts speculate that the potential fallout could lead to a 15-20% decline to new lows once the initial excitement subsides and fears of economic deceleration begin to take hold.
**Disclaimer:** Cryptocurrency is a high-risk asset class. This article is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. You may lose all of your capital.
