Donald Trump Surpasses Kamala Harris in Polymarket, Raising Manipulation Concerns
Donald Trump’s chances of winning the U.S. presidential election have seen a significant surge on the decentralized prediction platform, Polymarket, leading to concerns about potential market manipulation. With just weeks left until the election, Trump, the Republican nominee, currently holds a substantial lead over Vice President Harris, sparking debates about the integrity of these betting markets.
According to Polymarket’s official “Presidential Election Winner 2024” poll, bettors are favoring Trump over Harris, with 62.1 percent to 37.9 percent odds. This dramatic shift in odds has raised eyebrows, especially as it coincides with a massive $20 million wager on Trump from a user known as Fredi9999. This bet has skewed the market and raised doubts about the accuracy of Polymarket’s odds.
In contrast, national polls present a much closer race, with Harris leading Trump by a small margin of 48.5 percent to 46.2 percent, respectively. The controversy surrounding political prediction markets has intensified as Election Day approaches.
Elon Musk, billionaire and former CEO of X, recently claimed that such platforms are “more accurate than polls” due to the involvement of real money. However, critics argue that large bets can distort the results and influence the outcome.
Several U.S. lawmakers, including Senators Elizabeth Warren, Richard Blumenthal, and Jeff Merkley, have expressed their opposition to political betting platforms. In a letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in August 2024, they raised concerns about the potential influence of big money bets on the election, stating that it cheapens the democratic process.
The legitimacy of prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi, which recently won a court battle allowing it to sell political event contracts, remains unresolved. Kalshi has reportedly received over $12 million in bets related to Harris and Trump, with Trump holding a 57 percent lead over Harris. However, experts caution that these numbers may not reflect reality and that betting markets can be prone to manipulation.
As the 2024 U.S. presidential election draws near, the influence of big bets on the final outcome and the credibility of prediction markets continue to be subjects of speculation and concern.