**Polymarket Predicts No Jail Time for Caroline Ellison, CEO of Alameda Research**
Caroline Ellison, the former CEO of Alameda Research, is anticipated to avoid prison time as she approaches her sentencing scheduled for September 24. This speculation comes from bettors on Polymarket, who have weighed in on her fate.
As of Monday afternoon, a poll revealed that 43% of participants believe Ellison, who was previously in a relationship with Sam Bankman-Fried, will not face incarceration. In contrast, 19% and 28% of bettors forecast sentences ranging from 1 to 11 months and 12 to 23 months, respectively.
Ellison entered a guilty plea to charges of fraud and money laundering in December 2022, stemming from her involvement in Bankman-Fried’s extensive digital asset fraud. This scheme misappropriated $8 billion in funds from FTX investors. In exchange for her cooperation, she served as a key witness against Bankman-Fried during his high-profile trial in fall 2023, which concluded with him receiving a 25-year prison sentence and being ordered to forfeit over $11 billion due to his orchestrated crypto fraud.
Bankman-Fried attempted to undermine Ellison’s credibility by leaking excerpts from her personal diary to The New York Times. The diary detailed her feelings of being overwhelmed in the lead-up to FTX’s collapse in November 2022. This action resulted in the revocation of his bail before the trial commenced.
Additionally, a recent letter from U.S. prosecutors advocating for a lighter sentence for Ellison highlighted her unique situation. “The government cannot think of another cooperating witness in recent history who has received a greater level of attention and harassment,” they stated in a letter dated September 17. “The professional repercussions of this level of notoriety are evident and unlikely to diminish soon.”
**Legal Challenges for Ellison and Salame**
It is not unusual for federal prosecutors to issue letters advocating leniency for those who cooperate with investigations, but the extent of the cooperation can significantly influence the outcome.
Ryan Salame, the former CEO of FTX Digital Markets, opted not to assist federal authorities and pleaded guilty to criminal charges earlier this spring. He was sentenced to 7.5 years in prison. However, Salame is now seeking to withdraw his guilty plea after his partner, Michelle Bond, was indicted for campaign finance violations. He claims to have made an agreement with prosecutors to cease their investigation into Bond in exchange for his own guilty plea, and he now faces potential repercussions for allegedly misleading the court.
Meanwhile, FTX’s CTO Gary Wang and director of engineering Nishad Singh are also awaiting their own sentencing dates.
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