Mental Outlaw Challenges China’s Alleged Encryption Breakthrough, Citing Quantum Hurdles
Bitcoin
China
China’s quantum computer has only managed to crack a 22-bit key.
Renowned YouTuber Mental Outlaw has expressed skepticism about the significance of China’s recent claimed breakthrough in cracking RSA encryption algorithms used in banking, military, and cryptocurrency sectors. He outlined several limitations that make it unlikely to impact current encryption standards.
According to the research paper, the breakthrough involved a quantum computer that factorized the integer 2,269,753, surpassing previous quantum computing records. However, Mental Outlaw pointed out that classical computers have already surpassed this level by breaking an 892-bit key, a much more impressive achievement. In comparison, the quantum computer in China only managed to crack a 22-bit key, which is significantly smaller.
To put this in context, early RSA encryption standards used 512-bit keys, while modern encryption methods range between 2048 and 4096 bits. Mental Outlaw emphasized that current quantum computers lack the power to crack such large keys. Furthermore, scaling quantum computers to enhance processing power is not easily achievable, posing a significant limitation in overcoming encryption barriers.
Another challenge with quantum computing is the requirement for a specific physical environment to maintain quantum bits. These systems must be kept at near-absolute zero temperatures, necessitating complex cooling systems for stable operation. Additionally, a significant portion of quantum computing power is dedicated to error correction, leaving only a fraction of its capability to solve actual problems.
Despite these limitations, Mental Outlaw acknowledged that advancements in quantum computing could eventually pose a threat to modern encryption, but this concern remains in the future. In response to this risk, major tech companies have already started working on quantum-resistant encryption. HSBC, for example, began experimenting with quantum-resistant banking infrastructure in 2023, while IBM and Microsoft formed a coalition to develop post-quantum encryption technologies. Apple also joined the race by making iMessage quantum-resistant in early 2024 to protect digital communications against future quantum threats.
Addressing the potential threat of quantum computing, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin proposed a solution. He suggested that blockchain networks could mitigate the risk by implementing a hard fork and requiring users to download new wallet software. Buterin emphasized that this infrastructure could be developed in advance to protect users’ funds.
In 2017, a group of researchers warned that the elliptic curve signature scheme used by Bitcoin “could be completely broken by a quantum computer as early as 2027, by the most optimistic estimates.” However, breaking cryptocurrency security would likely require thousands, if not millions, of qubits, while the most advanced machines currently have around 1000.
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